Commentary: If it happens?

As last week ended, I was planning to put together some plans to write a commentary about the news (or lack thereof) coming out of Indianapolis regarding the 2008 IndyCar season.

The car count seems to be going the wrong direction -- RLR is in flux and suing the IRL's longest-tenured driver, D&R doesn't have a second car announced yet, Panther appears to be staying as a one-car operation, Vision is cutting a car. Planned teams announced in the off-season -- D.B. Mann, Sarah Fisher, Kingdom Racing -- appear to be struggling to get off the ground or becoming Indy-only programs due to lack of sponsorship. We knew a couple of big-name drivers were gone last year -- with Hornish & Franchitti defecting to NASCAR and Dan Wheldon openly indicating his desire to do so in 2009 -- but the loss of Scott Sharp to ALMS and Tomas Scheckter's inability to land a full-time ride were big blows.

I was going to write that, while this season would appear to be a difficult (at best) one, the light at the end of the tunnel is near -- that 2008 would be a transition year before a major change in 2009 -- with new tracks, the impending defection of Newman Haas Lanigan Racing from CCWS, and possibly some other teams to follow.

The future of open-wheel racing was bright, because 2008 would be the tumult before the storm that would transform the Indy Racing League into a new era.

But at about 10:45 Thursday night, everything changed. That's when Robin Miller's report that TG & KK had come to an agreement to merge the series for 2008 -- pending a few hurdles -- was posted online.

Now, it's time to possibly shift those predictions forward one year. This will still be a transition year -- a feeling-out process as new teams try to fit in with new equipment (and, in some cases, running ovals for the first time). But OW racing may not have to go through a tumultuous "transition" year with low car counts on both sides and dying races as it heads toward the eventual unification/surrender that was sure to happen in 2009 or 2010.

This might be out the window now.

There will still be a lot of things to iron out. But the biggest problems that have befallen open-wheel racing on both sides of the fence all come from decisions that have been made to either weaken the other series or make a desparate move to ensure the survival of your own.

That stems from the IRL's decision in 2003 to allow engine leases, which wooed Honda, Toyota and several ex-CART teams. Other that the defection by Penske & partial move by Ganassi in 2003, no one single event has been more influential in the IRL's move to a position of superiority in the split. It secured the demise of CART and relegated CART/Champ Car to the position of a weakened series that had to operate on life-support.

However, that decision led to a rapid increase in the price of engines, which led to many of the smaller IRL teams disappearing. Kelley, Cahill, Treadway, Hemelgarn, Schmidt, PDM, Beck, Menard -- they're all gone or have been relegated to Indy-only teams. Teams like Panther, Foyt & D&R have managed to hang on, but only Panther has managed to stay consistently competitive (and it barely survived a few years ago). With that, we've seen a significant drop in the car count, and a similarly-significant drop in the number of American racers in the series, as the former CART teams brought over a number of foreign road racers, and the old-line IRL teams followed suit. Eventually, we've also seen the loss of Chevy & Toyota as engine manufacturers, and the IRL turning into a spec series.

Meanwhile, CART/CC tried to survive -- turning its back on ovals and instead embracing "festivals of speed" in streets and parking lots across the country. When that didn't work, it came time to turn to an international schedule, which also didn't work. They turned to a lighter, racier, cheaper new car -- the Panoz DP01 -- which did nothing to gain CC any more fans. Their TV time dwindled. Musical-drivers games took place almost weekly as ride-buyers sought to stay in seats, and teams were quick to ditch the guys in the seats for those who had more cash. CC's continued foibles -- all the way to the recent announcement of TV time -- became an embarrassment to motorsports, but its problems became wrapped into the IRL's problems as "open-wheel racing."

Those warts are still going to be there -- the IRL still has issues with three really good teams, a couple of semi-competitive teams, and a couple more that struggle to be competitive. CC has one really good team, a couple of semi-competitive teams, and a bunch more that will struggle financially just to get onto the grid. The IRL is facing the loss of solid oval races -- California, Michigan & Phoenix are three tracks that MUST get back onto the schedule -- and needing to resort to street races to replace them, which don't play well on TV. CC can't bring anything to the table but more street parades.

There is still the problem of recognition and attendance -- other than second-generation driver Graham Rahal, many of the CC drivers aren't very well-known to American race fans. Many venues are still struggling to fill seats. TV ratings aren't going to shoot up overnight.

But there are a lot of "wins" from the impending unification ...
*-The new series will have a few cornerstones that it can build around -- the biggest oval race in the world (Indy) and the biggest road/street race in North America (Long Beach). Not only that, it can offer Kansas and Texas oval races that bring huge crowds annually. Edmonton, Iowa, Nashville and Surfer's Paradise are also healthy, strong events that will be on the schedule for some time.
*-At least two more competitive, well-funded teams coming over in NHL and Forsythe. NHL will be able to run with Penske/AGR/TCGR right away. Forsythe (and maybe PKV) is probably at the same level of Vision & Panther -- right below, but right in there enough to be able to steal a race every now and then.
*-To me, the biggest problem befalling both series was not necessarily the split, but the low car counts of the last few years. A strong series with 24+ cars on the grid will play better on TV, and bring some legitimacy and respectability. A casual fan will be more likely to turn the race off if they only see 18 cars on the grid. But 24-28 cars makes the series look like a viable, strong, professional racing series. The unification will bring the car counts up to that -- levels we haven't seen in IndyCar racing for several years.
*-No more of the talk from NASCARland that "I don't watch that stuff because they're not together." Well, they're together now. You have to find another excuse (which means we'll see them go back to the pre-1995 excuse that "there are too many foreigners").
*-On a related note, the generally CC-centric open-wheel media won't have the IRL to kick on anymore in an effort to pump up their preferred series.
*-Believe it or not, there was some talent in Champ Car. We will see Paul Tracy, Graham Rahal and Justin Wilson running with Danica Patrick, Tony Kanaan, Helio Castroneves, Marco Andretti, Scott Dixon, Dan Wheldon ... it brings some depth to the field. But it also allows guys like PT, Rahal and JW to get some really good exposure and a shot at the Indy 500.
*-A unified series just wins the PR battle. It's not as unlikely that washed-up former F1 drivers will be as quick to look down their noses at this series, as they did the IRL, and might consider it (which might be more likely when/if the OW invasion flames out).
*-While I prefer to see about 75% ovals, a 50/50 road-oval split should draw some talented road racers.
*-The merger happened exactly in the way it needed to -- with control at 16th and Georgetown, and the CC teams that could afford to coming back, but KK & GF agreeing to "unify," rather than seeing a massive defection or another bankruptcy court hearing. That KK & GF seem to be in on this should create some healing from 12 years of DEEP wounds being created.
*-The likelihood of more engine manufacturers, and chassis manufacturers, being back in the sport. Panoz threw a lot of eggs in the CC basket, but now it can focus on developing its IRL chassis again. Cosworth can bring back its old NA IRL engines (the former Chevy engine) that disappeared a couple of years ago.
*-Sponsors should be more attracted by a unified series. So should potential manufacturers.
*-Business decisions that will be made for the good of the sport, not to win a battle or to ensure survival. Therefore, we should see stronger tracks/events on the schedule as the weaker ones that were added solely to add races to the schedule go away. It might be easier to bring a less expensive car/engine package, as well.
*-The IRL will get a "bump" in viewership and exposure from the additional press generated by the unification. It already has the most exciting, entertaining racing product in the world. As more eyeballs get to see it, it's likely new fans will be created.

And even if the IRL brass can't reach an agreement with Motegi and make this thing happen for 2008, there's no way it won't happen for 2009.

So, let's drop the bickering ... the "my series is better than yours because ..." talk ... the blind loyalty to a series because of factors that have nothing to do with racing.

It doesn't matter if you come to Indy wearing a Justin Wilson or Graham Rahal shirt or ones touting Helio Castroneves and Danica Patrick. Let's just drop the green and enjoy the most entertaining racing on the planet.